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After an ugly series versus the Pirates, things are looking up for the Cubs, who managed a quality 4-3 win in extras on Monday and benefitted from having both Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson back from their respective injuries.
With Seiya Suzuki also returning last week, Chicago suddenly has no position players on what was once a lengthy Injury List.
Braves vs. Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Braves -135, Cubs +114
- Runs Line: Braves -1.5 (+120), Cubs +1.5 (-142)
- Total: Over 8.5 (-118), Under 8.5 (-102)
Odds via BetMGM
Braves vs. Cubs prediction
And while the return of Justin Steele hasn’t benefitted the Cubs too greatly to this point, eventually having him back in the mix is going to pay dividends. Steele, who gets the start on Wednesday against the Braves, has struggled to a 5.21 ERA this season and has been hammered in back-to-back starts versus the Pirates.
Despite his ugly ERA, Steele does not appear to be that far off from the pitcher who finished fifth in the NL Cy Young vote last season. His modeling metrics have actually improved compared to 2023, as he has pitched to a Stuff+ rating of 101 and a Location+ of 107.
Steele owns an expected ERA of 3.76 and an expected FIP of 3.97 in 2024. Given that his stuff looks on par with his traditional level and his underlying results are respectable, it still seems logical that in time he will settle into far better results.
The Braves are enjoying having a healthy Max Fried in the rotation this season, as he has been solid to this point with a 3.81 ERA. He owns a 3.63 expected ERA, and 3.64 expected FIP, which are both the highest marks he’s posted since 2020.
Fried owns a Stuff+ rating of 96 and a Location+ rating of 99. By no means is he known for having an electric arsenal , but his K/BB ratio of 1.95 is on track to be his worst mark since 2017.
At full strength, Cubs hitters make a tough matchup for left-handed pitchers. They have hit to a wRC+ of 109 versus LHP in 2024 and own an OPS of .728. They have a 0.46 BB/K ratio against left-handed pitchers, which is the eight-best mark in MLB.
To no surprise, the Braves have been excellent versus lefties as well, as they enter Wednesday night’s matchup with a wRC+ of 116. Their offensive potency does take a hit though with Austin Riley out of the lineup, and it appears likely he will miss this contest.
Braves vs. Cubs pick
This matchup presents a good opportunity to buy low on Steele. It’s quite reasonable to believe he will prove to be the more effective of these two starters throughout the rest of this season.
At +120, there is value backing Steele and the Cubs on Wednesday.
Pick: Cubs ML (+120 at BetMGM | Play to +105)
