With five months to go before the November election, it appears California’s fate remains firmly sealed in blue: Democratic candidate Adam Schiff is leading Republican Steve Garvey by 25 points among likely voters – 62% to 37% — in the race to represent the Golden State in the U.S. Senate, according to a new survey released Thursday.
The results from the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California poll also show Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by a commanding margin — 55% to 31%.
In the deep blue state, Democratic candidates are leading Republican candidates in local House district races by a 26 point margin — 62% to 36%. In competitive districts, that margin decreases to 20 points.
When asked about items headed to the state ballot, nearly two-thirds of likely voters polled said this is a “bad time” for state bonds.
Likewise, two-thirds of likely voters said they would vote no on a business-backed anti-tax ballot initiative. Dubbed the Taxpayer Protection and Government Accountability Act, it would require a majority of voters to approve new taxes, in addition to the two-thirds vote of both chambers of the state legislature that new taxes must already clear. It would also limit voters’ ability to pass local taxes by raising the vote requirement to two-thirds from a simple majority.
Last year, in an effort to undercut that initiative, the Democratic-held state legislature placed a constitutional amendment on the November ballot that would require any ballot measures seeking to increase vote requirements beyond a simple majority to meet the same supermajority level themselves — which would likely kill the anti-tax initiative. Nearly three in five likely voters — 58% — said they would vote for such an amendment.
A little more than half of likely voters — 53% — said they would also vote no on a legislative initiative to lower the vote threshold from a two-thirds vote to 55% to pass certain local taxes and bonds.
The reluctance to lower the vote threshold for new local bonds may be a sign of voters’ fatigue with being asked for funds. In the March election, voters barely approved Proposition 1 — the measure backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom that raises $6.4 billion in bonds for more than 11,000 new treatment beds and homeless housing units.
Several more bonds could come before voters this November, too, including a $20 billion regional housing bond in the nine-county Bay Area.
The poll also contained several findings about Newsom’s $228 billion budget proposal announced in May, which resolves a $27.6 billion deficit by pulling $4.2 billion from “rainy day” reserves set aside in previous years, as well as cutting $15.2 billion from various programs, from middle-class scholarships to housing assistance for low-income people.
“Majorities favor the governor’s revised state budget plan, while specific proposals for spending cuts and the use of rainy day funds receive more mixed reviews,” said Mark Baldassare, statewide survey director at PPIC, in a statement.
Respondents were split down the middle when asked whether drawing on reserves was a good idea. Likewise, 47% of respondents viewed spending cuts favorably, while 48% disliked them.
Some other findings include:
— Californians are pessimistic about the state of California and the nation. Three in five of those surveyed think things in California are generally going in the wrong direction, while 68% think California will have bad economic times during the next 12 months. Three in four of those surveyed think things in the United States are generally going in the wrong direction.
— No glowing reviews for Newsom or other elected officials. Of those surveyed, 44% approve of Newsom’s job performance, and majorities disapprove of the state legislature and their own Assembly and state Senate representatives.
— Californians feel mixed about their finances. Forty-seven percent of those surveyed say their personal finances are about the same as a year ago and 48% are somewhat satisfied with their financial situation. About 30% say that the cost of housing places a lot of financial strain on them.
