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The Yankees are priced as a gigantic favorite Friday night against the White Sox as the two teams open a three-game set in the Bronx.
The Yankees’ red-hot batters will be excited about a matchup versus Mike Clevinger, who has pitched to a 5.40 ERA and 6.01 xERA. Clevinger’s arsenal isn’t what it once was, as he now owns a Stuff+ rating of just 87. He owns the worst K/BB ratio of his career at just 1.25.
The Yankees have been the most potent offense in the league versus right-handed pitchers this season, posting a top-ranked wRC+ of 127 and an OPS of .782.
White Sox vs. Yankees odds
- Moneyline: White Sox +200, Yankees -278
- Run Line: White Sox +1.5 (+105), Yankees -1.5 (-125)
- Total: Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-110)
Odds via DraftKings
White Sox vs. Yankees prediction & pick
(7:05 p.m. ET Friday)
It’s fair to say Nestor Cortes is likely to get some solid run support, and given the overall quality of Cortes, it makes sense to see such wide prices in this matchup. Cortes enters with an underachieving ERA of 4.63 this season, and he has struggled of late in particular. The 29-year-old lefty has pitched to an ERA of 4.74 over his last four outings.
However, his xERA of 2.80 and xFIP of 3.95 both suggest he is due for better results moving forward.
His Stuff+ rating of 96 is down considerably since last season though, and that lesser rating correlates with his reduced strikeout rate of only 23.4% this season. Batters hold a chase rate of just 26.9% against Cortes and a whiff rate of 24%. In his last two outings, in particular, opponents have held a chase rate of just 20%.
Cortes has struck out more than seven batters in just two of his nine starts this season. Still, his strikeout prop for tonight is set at 6.5. On first thought it would makes sense for that number to be higher than normal, given he’s facing a White Sox team ranked 30th in a number of offensive categories.
A deeper dive tells us there should not necessarily be that much of adjustment. The White Sox 22.3% strikeout rate is actually the 14th-lowest in MLB this season. They are putting an above-average amount of balls in play, but it’s just a lot of soft contact.
The White Sox out-of-zone swing percentage is the lowest in baseball at 48.7, and their zone swing percentage ranks middle of the pack. In terms of plate discipline, the White Sox are quite respectable in most categories.
Cortes hasn’t generated much in the way of strikeouts this season, and this is not necessarily a great matchup to turn things around. There is value betting Cortes strikeout total to come in under 6.5.
Best bet: Nestor Cortes under 6.5 strikeouts (-120 at DraftKings | Play to -125)
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