Ukraine can breathe a sigh of relief for now. The new military aid from the USA will alleviate some problems, prevent the feared collapse and enable new long-range counterattacks. But serious weak points remain.
After the U-turn in the US House of Representatives, the Senate will also approve the new aid package for Ukraine worth $61 billion on Tuesday or Wednesday. This is most welcome news for the beleaguered country at war. But how will the aid actually affect the military situation?
This question cannot be separated from the reasons why Russia has gained the military upper hand in recent months. According to experts, it is a combination of three factors in particular:
- Artillery superiority: Russia has much larger ammunition stocks and fires five to ten times as many grenades as the Ukrainians.
- Weakened Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense: The growing gaps in air defense not only make Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure vulnerable. Russian aircraft have recently been able to operate close to the front without being shot down. Their heavy glide bombs systematically destroy Ukrainian positions.
- Imbalance in staff: Russia is suffering higher losses, but it is compensating for this by continually increasing its troops. Ukraine, on the other hand, can no longer find enough volunteers for the war.
Against this background, the following points about new American military aid are significant:
Help comes late, some consequences are irreversible
Congress took more than eight months to approve the Biden administration’s requests for new funding for the Ukrainians. In the meantime, they had to give up territory that they could have held with better supplies, including the well-fortified city of Avdiivka in Donbass. The new defense lines built behind it have only been provisionally expanded. Northwest of Avdiivka, the front is crumbling to such an extent that the Russians managed one of their fastest advances in a long time. They have advanced almost five kilometers in the last week and have now reached the railway village of Otscheretine.
Further losses are therefore to be expected in the next two weeks. The Pentagon can deliver ammunition immediately after President Biden signs the new budget amendment. Military experts assume that larger stocks in Eastern Europe are ready for transfer. But stabilizing the front is likely to take much longer.
The artillery ammunition alleviates the biggest problem
The Ukrainian war is still primarily an artillery war. New technologies such as drones play an important role, as do long-range weapons such as cruise missiles. But the strength of the artillery remains crucial for advances on the ground and their defense. With concentrated artillery fire, the Ukrainians could have combated the Russian tank advances of the last few weeks more effectively. Instead, they had to ration ammunition.
Above all, they need 155 millimeter caliber shells for their howitzers from NATO stocks as well as precision ammunition for the American Himars rocket launchers. There will soon be sufficient budget funds for both. Such deliveries will be a priority for the Pentagon.
Atacms missile breakthrough
Congress gives the Biden government a lot of leeway in how to use the approved funds. The Ukraine bill does not contain precise information about the type and amount of military aid to be provided – with one exception: the House of Representatives has given a clear order to hand over long-range Atacms missiles. These are ballistic missiles with a range of – depending on the version – 165 or 300 kilometers. The text of the law is not entirely clear, but apparently it means that Ukraine should now receive ATACMs with an operational range of 300 kilometers for the first time.
In this respect, the current decision for Kiev is even better than previous proposals. The Biden government had long rejected the delivery of Atacms and has so far only delivered a small number of the shorter-range version. With the more far-reaching version, the Ukrainians could target the entire Crimean peninsula, including the naval bases there and the strategically important bridge over the Kerch Strait. However, Congress gives Biden the authority to forego a delivery if there are security concerns.
Military aid is not enough for a new counteroffensive
American military aid since the Russian invasion in February 2022 totals about $46 billion. Compared to this, the newly approved funds of a good $50 billion (plus loans for economic purposes) are very substantial. They extend until 2025, i.e. until after the American presidential election. However, in Washington there is no talk of equipping Ukraine for a new major ground offensive like the one in the summer of 2023. The main purpose is to stop the Russian advance and provide better protection against Russian air attacks.
According to the Ukrainian secret service, Russia is planning a major offensive in June, possibly against the metropolis of Kharkiv. Ukraine can now prepare itself better for this. Meanwhile, the question remains as to when and how their armed forces will be able to liberate some of the occupied territories.
The problem of air defense is only partially alleviated
It is widely believed that the Pentagon will now supply additional interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense system. This is particularly welcome as supplies of such missiles have been running low and Russian air strikes have been increasingly successful. However, the extent of Patriot deliveries can currently only be guessed at. The government in Washington was already reluctant to deliver before the blockade in Congress and will likely continue to be so in the future. It has so far only handed over a single Patriot system to Ukraine, while Germany recently announced the delivery of a third.
Patriot interceptor missiles are expensive and are only produced in small numbers. Washington must also take into account the increased needs of its ally Israel. The portable Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, which are also in short supply, are easier to approve.
The lack of new troops remains a weak point
Weapons supplies are not Ukraine’s only problem. In addition, the Ukrainian authorities are unable to muster enough soldiers for the front. The new mobilization laws will not solve this problem. In addition, the recruits need thorough military training, something that has been neglected so far in the war. The funds approved by Congress can be used for training in the NATO area. But the capacity of such courses has so far been too limited.
Ukraine gains time, but no long-term guarantee
A former Ukrainian officer who served under the Pseudonym Tatarigami writes highly acclaimed analyzes of the war, advises a sober assessment of the situation. The breakthrough will provide Ukraine with urgently needed help, but it will only give it a year’s time. If it is not possible to significantly boost arms production domestically and in the EU by then, Ukraine could find itself in a similarly critical situation in 2025 as it was this winter.
The months-long blockade in Congress under the influence of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has shown Ukraine how fragile US support is. Most recently, more than 70 percent of MPs voted for the aid package, but within the Republican faction the opponents formed a narrow majority. A Trump election victory would further reduce America’s predictability. Ukraine is therefore under more pressure than ever to find as many partners as possible in this war and to use its own initiative.
